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July 07, 2007

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Vladimir Miloushev

Perhaps the story of JotSpot illustrates best why Google is unlikely to become a utility provider. Their grid architecture is so different from any other execution environment that "porting" an application to the Google grid is more like re-writing it.

Perhaps the more relevant question is, can the Web 2.0 / SaaS model support innovation and scaling at the same time? Think about this: Google has market reach, mindshare and power comparable only to Microsoft as it was 15 years ago. Yet 15 years ago, when Microsoft wanted to bring a new application in front of 100 million users, all they needed to do is to write the app for a single PC, include it on the Windows distribution disk and put an icon for it on the desktop. It was the rest of the industry - all the HPs, Compaqs, Dells, Acers, etc. of the world that made sure that the new PC you and I bought came with this app preinstalled and ready for us to click. Google, on the other side, has to figure out all by their lonely self how to serve every app to 100 million concurrent users over the net.

I hope I am wrong, but it sure feels like the need to scale every piece of code to millions of users is beginning to slow down the rate of advance in technology. Google is now 10 years old. When Microsoft was 10 years old, they were able to change their whole architecture and code base on the way from DOS to Windows and Office. In the next 15 years, from 1985 to 2000, being already a huge and mature company, they moved from 16-bit Windows to 32-bit Windows 98 to Windows NT. That's three separate OS architectures in 15 years - one every 5 years.

And Microsoft was not the only large company capable of this - it took Sun less than 5 years to transition from a maker of pizza-box workstations to an enterprise server company, and Apple just did it with the iPod. For some reason, I just don't see the evidence of this rate of change in Google, Yahoo, eBay, Salesforce.com or any other of the large web companies - each of them is doing today pretty much what they were doing in 1999/2000.

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